Undeserved reply to CJ on population statistics

[Nessie]

It happened all over Europe, Jews being ordered to leave their properties and arrests.

The same thing happened to Germans in the post-war period and that doesn't mean it's genocide.

The British did indeed arrest Germans and sent them to camps during WWII. I can evidence there were no mass killings of those Germans by the British. You cannot do that, regarding the Jews arrested by the Nazis.

[Archie]

Please share with us these "rigorous" studies that you are relying on. And please explain what sources of data were miraculously discovered years after the fact that help them fix all the numbers they had wrong.

And can you clarify your argument? Are you saying that they had the numbers wrong in the 1930s due to inaccurate contemporaneous data but were able to fix it years later? Or are you saying that the correct numbers (the "rigorous" studies) were available but that people like Korherr, Linfield, Kohn, etc were too stupid to be aware of them?

I'll move forward with this when we agree on some important basics.

I don't know if any of those people were stupid or not. Science and history tends to progress with time although there short setbacks.

And keep in mind, you can't and shouldn't expect to see any perfect statistical or historical study. But over time, as humans develop better techniques and gather better information, their studies get better and better.

Depending on how much effort this will take, if you are intellectually honest, we can look at that earlier studies and compare them to later studies to find out why the later and more rigorous ones are more reliable and credible. It requires the ability to think critical about evidence and research and analysis methods but if you can do that then we can do some independent meta-research.

I am too tired of arguing with people here about unimportant things so I want to ensure that we have a shared understanding before I invest more time into this exercise.

It is revealing that this is so difficult for you. It seems you have been vaguely alluding to these "rigorous statistical studies" for months now, yet you can't actually name any. Hmm.

*CJ furiously typing into chatgpt, "jewish demographics from the 1930s"

By the way, generally speaking, the most accurate and reliable population statistics are collected contemporaneously. If such data wasn't collected contemporaneously, there's no way to go back and do it years after the fact. In some cases, if there were known problems with a census (e.g., undercounting of homeless) then it might make sense to try to adjust the contemporaneous census figures after the fact, but such adjustments will usually be inexact. As a rule the best data for this is the data collected at the time. So if you are going to claim that the numbers suddenly got more accurate years after the fact, you need to explain precisely what these supposed "new" data sources were and when these became available.

[Nessie]

...

By the way, generally speaking, the most accurate and reliable population statistics are collected contemporaneously. ...

That makes Nazi statistics, the most likely to be accurate.

[ConfusedJew]

CJ has still not addressed this. He claims that there was absolute agreement on the prewar figure of 16.6M which is simply not true. Many Jewish sources and reference works estimated a world population around a million lower than CJ's "consensus" figure. In general, he is greatly underestimating the difficulty of counting and Jews and is greatly overconfident in the reliability of the stats.

Here is what Korherr said in his report for Himmler.

Statistical Analysis of Jewry

World

The total Jewish population of the world was estimated to be between 15 and 18 million in the last decade, sometimes at over 20 million. The Statistische Reichsamt (German Bureau of Statistics) estimated the total Jewish population of the world at 17 million in 1937.

Does this sound like the number was known with absolute certainty? And that's for the prewar number which should be relatively easy. The statistical difficulties would obviously be much greater in the aftermath of the war.

This is not what I'm even seeing in the Korherr report. The translation that I'm seeing does not give a range.

"The total number of Jews in the world was estimated in 1937 in general at around 17 million, of which more than 10 million are found in Europe."

https://germanhistorydocs.org/en/nazi-g ... ch-23-1943

[Archie]

CJ has still not addressed this. He claims that there was absolute agreement on the prewar figure of 16.6M which is simply not true. Many Jewish sources and reference works estimated a world population around a million lower than CJ's "consensus" figure. In general, he is greatly underestimating the difficulty of counting and Jews and is greatly overconfident in the reliability of the stats.

Here is what Korherr said in his report for Himmler.

Statistical Analysis of Jewry

World

The total Jewish population of the world was estimated to be between 15 and 18 million in the last decade, sometimes at over 20 million. The Statistische Reichsamt (German Bureau of Statistics) estimated the total Jewish population of the world at 17 million in 1937.

Does this sound like the number was known with absolute certainty? And that's for the prewar number which should be relatively easy. The statistical difficulties would obviously be much greater in the aftermath of the war.

This is not what I'm even seeing in the Korherr report. The translation that I'm seeing does not give a range.

"The total number of Jews in the world was estimated in 1937 in general at around 17 million, of which more than 10 million are found in Europe."

https://germanhistorydocs.org/en/nazi-g ... ch-23-1943

Your link is only the long version. There also a shorter version and that is where he quotes the prewar stats.

This link has both.

http://www.holocaustresearchproject.org ... rherr.html

[TlsMS93]

The British did indeed arrest Germans and sent them to camps during WWII. I can evidence there were no mass killings of those Germans by the British. You cannot do that, regarding the Jews arrested by the Nazis.

You don't want to be called an idiot, but you try. I talked about what they did to Germans after the war, and you come here and talk about the British.

You can't even guarantee that you're Jewish, since not even Jews know how to define themselves, let alone what happened in the past in a specific place. Keep citing so-called spurious people to get them to go to a street corner in Kiev.