Ryan Faulk: The Jewish Population Miracle

[Archie]

Ryan Faulk (AKA the Alternative Hypothesis) has an interesting article up on his Substack. It's from May but I haven't seen much discussion of it.

https://thealternativehypothesis.substa ... on-miracle

I did not carefully work through all of his numbers. But from giving it a quick read, I noted a couple of main points. The first point I was already aware of, but the second point was new to me.

1) The pre and post-war numbers for global Jewish population are usually something like 16.7M pre-war and 11M post-war, a difference of a bit less than 6M. But if you look through the AJC yearbooks, what you see is that they were originally using a lower prewar figure of around 15.8M. Then they revised it UP by about a million after the war. In the 1945-1956 yearbook, they say about 15.75M prewar and 11.5M postwar, which of course is a drop of only 4.25M. Then the next year they revised up the prewar number and revised down the postwar number. (Sidenote: the higher 16.7M number seems to ultimately derive from Arthur Ruppin's 1939 book Jewish Fate and Future. But there were competing figures like the AJC one which was about a million lower. After the war, it seems Ruppin's number was favored, for obvious reasons.)

https://ajcarchives.org/Portal/Yearbook ... Index/2606

2) There are major anomalies in the Jewish population figures in subsequent decades. The AJC originally reported growth from 11M in 1945 up to 14.5M in 1980. But the issue there is that the implied growth is too fast, i.e., it implies an unrealistically high Jewish fertility rate. If the population was 14.5M in 1980, that means the 11M was TOO LOW and that you got "population growth" as Jews who temporarily disappeared in the statistics came back in (when they moved to Israel, for example). So when they realized they screwed up and accidentally disproved the Holocaust, they actually "revised" the numbers down substantially. The revised 1980 number was only 12.8M, a drop of 1.7M.



There are some interesting implications of this. The Holocaust story depends heavily on that 1945 estimate of 11.0M. But why should we accept this 1945 number if by their own admission they couldn't even get the numbers right in 1980? We would expect 1945 to be the LEAST accurate year.

https://ajcarchives.org/Portal/Yearbook ... Index/3826

[PrudentRegret]

Not only that but they corrected the 1938 population UPWARDS in 1948 which would imply a bigger loss in population during the war.

So they corrected the 1938 population UPWARDS in the year 1948.

Then they corrected 1945-2005 population DOWNWARDS.

They never changed the 1945 estimate.

The 1945 estimate was perfectly fine, even though that would be the most unreliable statistic caused by measurement error from geopolitical events.

So every step they have revised population estimates in the correct direction to inflate WWII deaths, and they haven't touched what would have been the most unreliable estimate.

[borjastick]

I find it difficult to believe and add any credibility to numbers and records of any population from 100 years ago. I wonder how any group or population could be accurately recorded when data was thin on the ground, there were no central records or updates on a regular basis and so on.

If I take the case of Ireland, which is part of my heritage and background. The great famines of the mid 19th century were responsible for many deaths and many many more hundreds of thousands simply packing their things and leaving for the UK and the US. Indeed Boston and New York have a strong connection with Ireland and immigration.

Regardless of who was to blame for these famines the fact remains that to this day people disagree about the number of deaths and indeed the number of the general population to start with.

I have a very Republican minded friend who hates England and does everything he can to bad mouth us Brits, and his number of deaths is wildly above anything I can find on web sites such as Statista.

My point is that when you apply claims of numbers and blanket 'population facts' the chance of you being wildly wrong is significant. Then apply all of this to poor, impoverished jewish communities in Eastern Europe between say 1850 and 1930 and I would be very suspicious of any and all records.

[Archie]

Just doing some back of envelope arithmetic,

1940 Jewish Population
World 16.7M
Europe 9.5M
U.S. 4.8M
Other (implied) 2.4M

The vast majority of the Jews were in Europe or America. The "other" category which would include North Africa, the Middle East, and everywhere else, must have been relatively small.

Where I'm going with this is that as of 2015 there were around 6.3M Jews in Israel. Back in WWI, the number was almost nothing. So big picture, it seems a lot of Jews moved from Europe to Israel (and America). I don't know if they say this explicitly but I think their explanation if they were to offer one would be that the Israeli Jews are mostly not from Europe. But it seems to me this would imply that the relatively small "other" group" above had rather high population growth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel

It seems they claim that as of 2015, 26.3% had European paternal ancestry while 44.1% had "Israeli" background (i.e. second+ generation) but a lot that could just be European.

I think Faulk in on the right track here. I think the next step would be to try to model out/simulate these population movements with Python or R or something like that. I think this would reveal a lot of contradictions.

[fireofice]

If Faulk's analysis is right, especially what he says under "The explanation that works" section, then the "where did they go" thing is answered. They are wherever the 14.5 million Jews recorded there says they are! Case closed!

Somehow I doubt this will be the end of it though.

[borjastick]

Most jews in israel today are directly from ashkenazis and many of those are direct survivors, if we can call them that, of the holocaust. There are many many jews in israel today who changed their family names from ashkenazi to a more local name so as to hide from their past connections with Europe.This in some way for them makes them feel more of a genuine jew. Netanyahu is one such example.

Netanyahu's family name did change from "Mileikowsky." His grandfather was Nathan Mileikowsky, a rabbi and an active participant in the Zionist movement. According to the Jewish Virtual Library, Mileikowsky used the surname "Netanyahu" in his writings, leading his children to adopt the name

I think you know Archie my feelings on all of these wretched people. They are fake jews, part of the ashkenazi clan of rogues and vagabonds who plundered their way through the eastern european regions and decided that rather than being on the cusp of Christianity and islam they would convert to judaism. Fake as a nine bob note. They are supremely arrogant and lie left right and centre for a living. One only has to see what they are doing today in Gaza and what they have done to real jews such as those who came to israel from Iran to see what kind of scum one is dealing with.

It is all clearly analysed and described in The Thirteenth Tribe. I understand that personal dna tests are banned in israel. I wonder what they are afraid of finding.

Thus my point is that to believe anything these people say is a fool's errand. Any numbers claimed, life experiences, reasons to be special and untouchable are all very questionable to say the least. I for one have no idea why anyone with a brain would believe any population numbers of jews in the world after 1900. Edit:my mistake with the original date and suggestion.

Netanyahu’s mother, Tzila Segal, was an Israeli-born Jew and his father Benzion Netanyahu was a secular Jew from Poland. His father, born Benzion Mileikowsky, changed his name to Benzion Netanyahu after he settled in Palestine. He traces some of his roots to Spain.
He was born in Jaffa in 1949, before later being raised in Jerusalem and going to high school in the United States.
Netanyahu’s father was a “Revisionist Zionist” who believed that Israel should exist on both sides of the Jordan River, rejecting compromises with neighbouring Arab states.

[Callafangers]

Most jews in israel today are directly from ashkenazis and many of those are direct survivors, if we can call them that, of the holocaust. There are many many jews in israel today who changed their family names from ashkenazi to a more local name so as to hide from their past connections with Europe.This in some way for them makes them feel more of a genuine jew. Netanyahu is one such example.

Netanyahu's family name did change from "Mileikowsky." His grandfather was Nathan Mileikowsky, a rabbi and an active participant in the Zionist movement. According to the Jewish Virtual Library, Mileikowsky used the surname "Netanyahu" in his writings, leading his children to adopt the name

I think you know Archie my feelings on all of these wretched people. They are fake jews, part of the ashkenazi clan of rogues and vagabonds who plundered their way through the eastern european regions and decided that rather than being on the cusp of Christianity and islam they would convert to judaism. Fake as a nine bob note. They are supremely arrogant and lie left right and centre for a living. One only has to see what they are doing today in Gaza and what they have done to real jews such as those who came to israel from Iran to see what kind of scum one is dealing with.

It is all clearly analysed and described in The Thirteenth Tribe. I understand that personal dna tests are banned in israel. I wonder what they are afraid of finding.

Thus my point is that to believe anything these people say is a fool's errand. Any numbers claimed, life experiences, reasons to be special and untouchable are all very questionable to say the least. I for one have no idea why anyone with a brain would believe any population numbers of jews in the world prior to 1800.

Netanyahu’s mother, Tzila Segal, was an Israeli-born Jew and his father Benzion Netanyahu was a secular Jew from Poland. His father, born Benzion Mileikowsky, changed his name to Benzion Netanyahu after he settled in Palestine. He traces some of his roots to Spain.
He was born in Jaffa in 1949, before later being raised in Jerusalem and going to high school in the United States.
Netanyahu’s father was a “Revisionist Zionist” who believed that Israel should exist on both sides of the Jordan River, rejecting compromises with neighbouring Arab states.

I will have to read the Thirteenth Tribe. I presume this pertains to the Khazars, etc.? From what I recall reading at some point, there is some genetic evidence that a large proportion of "Jews" today are indeed of some semitic origin, but I could be wrong -- I have not studied this intensively. What I do know (and this may be veering somewhat off-topic to the thread), is that Judaism is not today what it was in the Biblical era, and this is where so many Christians (and others) today get misled about what "Jews" are. Every Jew today follows the Talmud; this is their premier holy text, with the Torah being of more symbolic reference, a reminder of their material 'promises' by God. They wear it in their little black box hats (tefillin), they hold it high at synagogue, they yearn for 'Mashiach' who will give them the material world and all its possessions, but seldom is any discussion among Jews about the Torah, itself. Their rabbinic literature, their Talmud, stays front-and-center. The thing is, there was no Talmud 2,000 years ago. There was only "Oral Torah", which was an [anti-biblical] ancient tradition (condemned by Jesus Christ, according to Bible) of the Pharisees and some other Jewish sects. In the 2nd or 3rd century A.D., following the destruction of the Second Temple in 70 A.D., these sages of the Pharisees decided to start transcribing for the first time this "Oral Torah" and continued to do so (and then further expand upon these interpretations in increasingly bizarre/divergent ways) in centuries to follow. This became the Talmud. These sages became known as 'rabbis' or 'ravs', and this particular cult-form of Judaism became the only surviving form, over time. Among all Jews, there is only a tiny group known as the Karaites who are true "Old Testament Jews" (rejecting the Talmud), and Karaites have historically been rejected by all other Jews, and refused acceptance into Israel, etc. (although I think Israel has been more open to them in recent years, possibly due to some raised eyebrows from Christians, who seem to think Jews are merely "Old Testament believers" in any case).

[TlsMS93]

Those who depend on statistics are lost. Goebbels said this in his diary. In the modern era, countries have difficulty conducting censuses, let alone determining specific minorities or groups that, depending on the issue, such as religion, can be contaminated for countless reasons over time. If a specific part of the population suffered disruption in the 10 years between one census and the next, was it the result of a local holocaust?

I find it bizarre that the Holocaust reduced the number of Jews by exactly 6 million, as if the rest of the Jews in America, non-occupied countries in Europe and the rest of the world had no children during the war.

And Jewish organizations follow religious customs of not counting the Jewish people, which is forbidden by the Talmud.

[SanityCheck]

On the prewar statistics for world Jewish population, the AJYB in 1938, 1939, 1940 is visibly shifting from relying on very outdated figures for the US and Soviet Union to more recent ones. The US figure used in the 1938 yearbook dated back to 1927 and was just over 4.2 million; the 1937 survey was not yet processed so started being factored in for 1939, and showed a rise to just under 4.8 million, with immigration vs natural increase explored. The Soviet census of January 1939 did not make it in until the 1940/41 yearbook, up to then the 1926 census was used, there was an increase of almost 400,000 between the two censuses, with no possibility of immigration being a significant factor to explain this.

Right there with the two updated censuses and surveys for America and the Soviet Union, that's an increase of almost 1 million, but over 13 years. Indeed, the 1939/40 yearbook gives a headline total of 16.1 million Jews, factoring in the US survey but not the Soviet census, while the 1940/41 yearbook factors in both but reduced the headline figure to 15,757,000, and begins to discuss the disruptions of war.

The 1939/40 yearbook relied as usual on the 1931 census for Poland, when the Polish government accepted for 1939 a higher figure even minus documented emigration - several hundred thousand above the census. Up to the start of the war, Poland was certainly increasing naturally despite limited emigration.

So an honest survey of Jewish populations in mid-1939 before the outbreak of war, even with forced emigration underway from Germany, Austria and the Czech lands, would certainly count more than 16 million.

[fireofice]

Nick, can you provide the primary sources that back up your claims? This thread provided the primary sources for their arguments so I would say it's fair you do as well, especially since as a historian you surely have access to the sources you are talking about.

[SanityCheck]

Nick, can you provide the primary sources that back up your claims? This thread provided the primary sources for their arguments so I would say it's fair you do as well, especially since as a historian you surely have access to the sources you are talking about.

The AJC archives site, of course, since this is where the American Jewish Yearbook can be found. The 'statistics' sections in question are on page 24 of the generic search - no page of search results link is possible - while 'world Jewish population' sections for postwar eras are on pages 31 and 32 right at the end of the alphabetised search results
https://ajcarchives.org/Portal/Yearbook ... rchResults

When clicking on the eye to the right of the title to 'open preview', a pop-up window appears with download options. To avoid resetting your navigation back to page 1, scroll down the pop up window to hit 'cancel' at the bottom right of the window.

It's a frustrating site to navigate compared to what I remember from 5-10-15 years ago.

The 1938-39 yearbook sets the baseline, on p.5 of the PDF of the statistics section one sees 4.228 million Jews for the US from the 1927 survey, on p.13 of the PDF in the world Jewish population table one sees 1926 specified as the census date for Ukraine etc within the USSR. On pp.11-12 of the PDF one sees the overall estimate/calculation of 15.29 million for the world, rounded up at first to 15.3 million.
https://ajcarchives.org/Portal/Yearbook ... Index/2520 - direct and stable



A reminder that Wolfgang Benz (ed), Dimension des Völkermords: Die Zahl der jüdischen Opfer des Nationalsozialismus (1991) is open access online. The introduction is notoriously problematic as a synthesis, but the individual country chapters are good summaries, the one on Poland highlights the discussion among demographers of the 1930s about the growth of the Polish Jewish population and cites some of the 1939 estimates that were in use by the Polish government and government-in-exile, obviously before the disruptions of war.
https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/ ... 08332/html