Does 6 million matter statistically

[Nazgul]

Statistical range and resolution limits in WWII mortality estimates

Total mortality estimates for the Second World War are reconstructed ranges derived from incomplete demographic data, post-war population deficits, and indirect attribution methods. Mainstream estimates place total war-related deaths between approximately 69 and 84 million, combining 50–56 million direct military and civilian deaths with 19–28 million deaths from war-related famine and disease. The resulting spread of roughly 15 million deaths reflects structural uncertainty in the source data rather than disagreement over a known total.

Using the midpoint of this range (≈ 76.5 million) implies an absolute uncertainty of approximately ±7.5 million, corresponding to a relative uncertainty of ~20%. This establishes a clear upper bound on numerical precision at the aggregate level.

Within this statistical framework, the citation of a specific figure such as 6 million deaths attributed to any single group has limited analytical meaning when discussed solely in the context of aggregate wartime mortality. This is not a qualitative or moral assessment, but a consequence of statistical resolution. A value of this magnitude lies within the global margin of error of total WWII mortality estimates. When the uncertainty of the measurement system exceeds or approximates the scale of the sub-value being highlighted, that sub-value cannot be independently resolved with high numerical confidence unless supported by separate, high-resolution evidence.

Total wartime mortality is calculated as the sum of multiple components—military losses, civilian deaths, famine, disease, and regional population deficits—each with its own uncertainty. These uncertainties propagate when combined; they do not cancel out. As a result, numerical precision at the sub-category level cannot exceed the precision of the aggregate total without introducing additional independent data sources.

Logistical assumptions further affect uncertainty. Demographic reconstructions commonly assume continuous transport flows and short dwell times. Archival transport records indicating extended stops at railway junctions or labour camps increase variance in time-to-outcome distributions, thereby widening uncertainty rather than narrowing it. This logistical complexity further constrains claims of fine numerical precision.

In summary, WWII mortality figures should be treated as ranges with substantial uncertainty, not fixed values. Within such ranges, isolated numerical claims—such as 6 million deaths attributed to any particular group—have limited explanatory power at the aggregate statistical level unless accompanied by evidence capable of resolving them beyond the existing margin of error. This is a methodological limitation inherent in large-scale historical reconstruction.

While the death of any individual is self-evidently tragic, historical analysis at the scale of global warfare operates under different methodological constraints. Within a dataset whose total mortality range varies by approximately 15 million, the repeated citation of a fixed figure—such as 700,000 deaths attributed to a single location, whether by murder or other causes—has limited analytical value unless the evidentiary basis for that figure can be shown to resolve uncertainty at a finer scale than the aggregate data allow.

This is not a claim that deaths at such a location did not occur, nor a judgment about their nature. It is a statement about confidence in numerical precision. When the background variance of the system exceeds or rivals the magnitude of the sub-figure being asserted, confidence in that figure must necessarily be qualified. Absent independent, high-resolution evidence capable of constraining the estimate beyond the existing margin of error, the number itself cannot be treated as statistically robust.

statistic and death.pdf

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[Hektor]

Statistical range and resolution limits in WWII mortality estimates

Total mortality estimates for the Second World War are reconstructed ranges derived from incomplete demographic data, post-war population deficits, and indirect attribution methods. Mainstream estimates place total war-related deaths between approximately 69 and 84 million, combining 50–56 million direct military and civilian deaths with 19–28 million deaths from war-related famine and disease. The resulting spread of roughly 15 million deaths reflects structural uncertainty in the source data rather than disagreement over a known total.....

a
Yeah war related death... including death not directly caused by physical force. And I would guesstimate the total percentage of death due to secondary causes to be far higher. WW2 caused major economical disruption and Stalin's scorched Earth policy in the East will have starved plenty of people to death... And this on purpose.

[TlsMS93]

a
Yeah war related death... including death not directly caused by physical force. And I would guesstimate the total percentage of death due to secondary causes to be far higher. WW2 caused major economical disruption and Stalin's scorched Earth policy in the East will have starved plenty of people to death... And this on purpose.

Stalin's scorched earth policy amplified a problem that, coupled with Germany's inability to produce sufficient food for itself, generated a tremendous humanitarian crisis that morally weighed heavily on the so-called Hunger Plan.

It is the duty of an occupying country to sustain the occupied population, but this is more of a utopian goal than something tangible. Imagine the US having to occupy the territory of a continental country like Brazil; by calculations, the number of men needed to control the Brazilian population would be unprecedented. Imagine the logistics of sustaining this contingent of millions of men and still managing to feed the population dispersed across millions of square kilometers without local support due to guerrilla warfare and the destruction of productive means during the conflict? Would anyone accuse the Americans of a policy of extermination? The natives perhaps, but to coldly claim that they had a plan with this objective in mind is implausible.

[szlafrok]

"Demographic reconstructions commonly assume continuous transport flows and short dwell times."

I once heard a seasoned railroader remark; "This is a railcar, and mostly what it does is sit."

I'd be curious to know what dwell times historians are assuming for transports? Modern railroads calculate "terminal dwell', which is hours a railcar sits in yards for a given week, but that usually doesn't count time wasted in line of road travel, for example, sitting in a siding en route while passing another train on a single track - that time usually goes to the train velocity metric. Likewise, the time the car spends in local service, or time spent at the customer loading and unloading is accounted for in other metrics, especially if the customer is being charged demurrage.

Here are some stats for a major freight railroad operating in peacetime, in the eastern United States:
https://www.csx.com/index.cfm/customers ... -measures/

I imagine wartime service was vastly slower both for freight and passenger. In wartime accounts it often takes days to reach destinations that are accomplished today in minutes or hours, e.g., Warszawa to Malkinia (the turn off to Treblinka) is about an hour under current passenger service conditions.

[borjastick]

634766125_1676311967077016_2915842340972719532_n.jpg (61.99 KiB) Viewed 1789 times

The 6m figure gets to the very heart of the holocaust. It is holy ground and is essentially the be all and end all for the holocaust and everything that came after. It is of course strange that as you say numbers of dead and injured in the European theatre of the second world war are loose to say the least but the 6m dead jews is not to be discussed or trifled with.

We all know it is a total load of bollocks as it was a figure bandied about for over a hundred years prior to the holocaust opportunity coming along and being conveniently and expertly exploited.

When I have discussed the figure with numpties over the years they often quick reply with things like 'well if it wasn't 6m it was definitely millions so what's the issue?'. This is always followed up with a big fat nothing when asked to prove the 'millions' figure they seem happy with.

The 6m figure is the cornerstone and the flagship of jewish sufferink oy vey. It endorses them above all others and gives them massive sympathy by both the chattering classes and the major nations of the world. Be it Ronald Regan, Obama and of course Trump they all buy into the holocaust, the 6m and the validity of a bunch of fake jews who have colonised Palestine and are stealing every bit of land they can from the rightful owners and killing them as they go just for good measure.

Without the holocaust and of course the 6m israel would be fucked.

[Nazgul]

Without the holocaust and of course the 6m israel would be fucked.

Hey, I think you’ve missed what I was actually saying. I wasn’t talking about ideology or who belongs where. I was just pointing out that with these big WWII death estimates, the numbers are really rough, so picking a single figure for any subgroup doesn’t really mean much without proper evidence.

I’d like to keep the chat on the numbers and uncertainty, not politics or symbolism.

[Hektor]

Without the holocaust and of course the 6m israel would be fucked.

Hey, I think you’ve missed what I was actually saying. I wasn’t talking about ideology or who belongs where. I was just pointing out that with these big WWII death estimates, the numbers are really rough, so picking a single figure for any subgroup doesn’t really mean much without proper evidence.

I’d like to keep the chat on the numbers and uncertainty, not politics or symbolism.

I researched the stats a little.Asked what percentage of a population would be would still be alive 80 years later. The results are around 5% assuming first world standard of living. So if 250.000 people are still alive 80 years later, this represents a population of about 5 million people.

[Nazgul]

I researched the stats a little.Asked what percentage of a population would be would still be alive 80 years later. The results are around 5% assuming first world standard of living. So if 250.000 people are still alive 80 years later, this represents a population of about 5 million people.

The world Jewish population figures, 1945 as cited by JVL is 11 million. If we extrapolate back from todays population figure every 5 years there is a linear line, which at 1945 would be approximately 11 million. The 16 million in 1939 is not correct, it would be slightly less than the 1945 figure.

The image below is the Washington post.

The graph below is mine which I did about 10 years ago.

[Hektor]

If I recall that correctly, the actual figure of Jews after 1960 would have been shrinking anyway. And that by birth-rate or lack thereof. The common misconception is that because ultra-orthodox tend to have plenty of children Jewish figures should be growing, but they don't.

[Nazgul]

If I recall that correctly, the actual figure of Jews after 1960 would have been shrinking anyway. And that by birth-rate or lack thereof. The common misconception is that because ultra-orthodox tend to have plenty of children Jewish figures should be growing, but they don't.

While exact figures are often debated, the trends in this graph are striking. Between 1882 and 1939—a span of 57 years—the global Jewish population grew from 7.8 million to 16.7 million, an increase of roughly 8.9 million. This averages out to a growth of approximately 156,000 people per year.
In contrast, the 57-year period between 1948 and 2005 saw the population rise from 11.5 million to 13.6 million, an increase of only 2.1 million. This represents an annual growth of about 37,000 people.
Assuming these historical estimates are accurate, the annual growth rate in the earlier period was more than four times higher (roughly 424%) than that of the more recent 57-year span.

Based on a linear slope derived from the 1882 and 1939 data points, the world Jewish population would have been zero in 1832.

Extrapolating the 1948–2005 linear trend backward, the world Jewish population would hit zero in 1636.

If the growth rate from the 1948–2005 period had been the same leading up to 1939, the world Jewish population in 1939 would have been approximately 11.17 million.
Figures
1880 7,800,000
1900 10,600,000
1914 13,500,000
1922 14,400,000
1925 14,800,000
1931 15,700,000
1939 16,728,000
1945 11,000,000
1948 11,500,000
1950 11,297,000
1955 11,800,000
1960 12,079,000
1970 12,585,000
1980 12,819,000
1990 12,868,000
2000 13,250,000
2005 13,620,000
2010 14,049,000
2015 14,551,600
2018 14,606,000
2019 14,707,400
2020 15,077,100
2021 15,166,200
2022 15,253,500
2023 16,783,105
2024 17,136,800


World Jewish population millions



Key Observations
A Surprising Shift in 2023–2024:

The data shows a massive jump of roughly 1.5 million people between 2022 and 2023. Historically, the "core" Jewish population (those identifying strictly as Jewish) is estimated at 15.7 million for 2023 and 15.8 million for 2024. The figure of 17.1 million likely includes a broader definition, such as the "Enlarged Jewish Population" or those eligible for the Law of Return.

Highest Growth Rate:
Surprisingly, based on the figures, the period from 2005 to 2024 is actually growing faster (185k/year) than the pre-war boom of the late 19th century (151k/year). This is largely driven by high fertility rates in Israel, which remains an outlier among developed nations.