The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

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Nessie
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by Nessie »

Archie wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 2:52 pm ....

This idea of yours that they burned 200,000 bodies in October is not the story.
That is not my idea either.

https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/ ... cle/belzec

"In October 1942, on orders from Odilo Globocnik, camp personnel deployed Jewish forced laborers from various locations in Lublin District to exhume the mass graves at Belzec. They ordered the forced laborers to burn the bodies on open-air “ovens” made from rail track. This was in keeping with the efforts of the Sonderkommando 1005, tasked with excavating and destroying evidence of Nazi mass murder in the German-occupied east."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belzec_extermination_camp

"In October 1942, the exhumation and burning of all corpses was ordered to cover up the crime on direct orders from SS-Obergruppenführer Odilo Globocnik, the deputy of Reichsführer-SS Heinrich Himmler in Berlin. The bodies were placed on pyres made from rail tracks, splashed with petrol and burned over wood."

https://www.holocausthistoricalsociety. ... elzec.html

"The final resettlement transports to Belzec arrived on the 11 December 1942 and this accelerated the work of corpse burning, which had begun in November 1942."

The histories do not agree on the month the cremations started. There were the following arrivals after cremations started;

"October 105,764
November 89,070
December 13,250"
Also, it would take quite a while to burn 200,000 so what did they do with those bodies in the meantime? They would either be buried or they would be in a heap.
Or taken straight from the gas chambers and put onto pyres. Why do you assume the Nazis could not cremate exhumed and newly dead corpses at the same time? They could have also cremated the newly dead and then started the exhumations. It is one of those unknowns. What that means is it is not possible to do a precise calculation as to how many were buried at Belzec, which means revisionists claims and calculations are back of the envelope, guestimations, which are not a reasonable cause to claim the pyres never happened.
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bombsaway
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by bombsaway »

Callafangers wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 7:59 am
The people in Provan's photo are clearly lean which is akin to the term "healthy" and, many would consider (especially outside the US and other obese nations), "normal". It was predictable that you would argue in this way ("splitting hairs", per usual), which is why I provided a table which estimates the weight of each participant and included a photograph example of a man at the exact dimensions I suggested. That man is lean, bombsaway, and his shape looks nearly identical to the man in the photograph.
You're analyzing folds in shirts. It doesn't really matter though, because your table is just unsubstantiated assertions (about the volume). The AI looked at it and without my prompting said it appeared to be "significantly incorrect". You're acting like whatever you're saying is obvious but it clearly isn't.

As for Bale, in that movie he's significantly underweight already, probably close to 0 body fat. This is not the adults or children in Provan's study, so I see no reason to spend time looking into this.
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fireofice
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by fireofice »

Nessie wrote:That is not my idea either.
From Arad's book:
The opening of the mass graves in Belzec and the cremating of the corpses removed from them began with the interruption of the arrival of transports and of the killing activities there in mid-December 1942. At that time there were about 600,000 corpses of murdered Jews in the pits of the camp. SS Scharführer Heinrich Gley, who served at that time in Belzec, testified:
From the beginning of August 1942 until the camp was closed in September 1943 I was in Belzec. . . . As I remember, the gassing stopped at the end of 1942, when snow was already falling. Then the unearthing and cremation of the corpses began. It lasted from November 1942 until March 1943. The cremation was conducted day and night, without interruption. At first, the burning took place at one site, and later, at two. One cremating site had the capacity to burn 2,000 corpses the beginning of the cremation operation, the second burning site was erected. On the average, during five months, at the first burning site about 300,000 corpses were cremated, and in four months at the second burning site, about 240,000 corpses. Naturally, these are average estimations. . . .
An official Polish committee investigating German crimes in the Lublin area wrote in its concluding report:
From December 1942 the arrival of transports with Jews to the Belzec camps came to a standstill. The Germans then started to erase systematically the trails of their crimes. They started to remove from the graves, with special cranes, the corpses of the murdered, pour over them some highly flammable material, and cremate them in large heaps. Later the procedure of burning the corpses was improved, and a roaster of railway tracks was built. The corpses were laid in layers, alternated with a layer of wood. The ashes from the burned corpses were put through a screening machine so that the valuables that might have remained with the corpses could be separated and removed. Subsequently, the ashes were buried. . . . The burning of the corpses was finished in March 1943. . . .
. . .

Rudolf Reder escaped from Belzec at the end of November 1942, shortly before the cremation began, and he could not give firsthand testimony about the cremation of the corpses there.
The USHMM seems to be the only source for the October date (which is what Wikipedia cited). All other earlier sources put it on November at the earliest. Do you have any other sources that say it was October? If not, it seems like this was just made up by the USHMM.
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bombsaway
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by bombsaway »

fireofice wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:29 am
The USHMM seems to be the only source for the October date (which is what Wikipedia cited). All other earlier sources put it on November at the earliest. Do you have any other sources that say it was October? If not, it seems like this was just made up by the USHMM.
One issue you guys have is deferring to secondary sources like historians on what the story is. This is not how history works. Whenever possible, the primary sources take precedent. At best you're making a critique of historiography, which is important, but that's barely relevant to the debate. Historians are often wrong, you're just showing that Holocaust history is no exception.

Burning of bodies is evidenced in August of 1942. The extent of the burning is unclear, but it is evidenced.



When I am asked about executions of Jews I must confirm that on 19 August 1942 I witnessed an execution of Jews at Belzec extermination camp . . .

Inside the building, the Jews had to enter chambers into which was channelled the exhaust of a [100(?)]-HP engine, located in the same building. In it there were six such extermination chambers. They were windowless, had electric lights and two doors. One door led outside so that the bodies could be removed. People were led from a corridor into the chambers through an ordinary air-tight door with bolts. There was a glass peep-hole, as I recall, next to the door in the wall. Through this window one could watch what was happening inside the room but only when it was not too full of people. After a short time the glass became steamed up. When the people had been locked up in the room the motor was switched on and then I suppose the stop-valves or vents to the chambers opened. Whether they were stop-valves or vents I would not like to say. It is possible that the pipe led directly to the chambers. Once the engine was running, the light in the chambers was switched off. This was followed by palpable disquiet in the chamber. In my view it was only then that the people sensed something else was in store for them. It seemed to me that behind the thick walls and door they were praying and shouting for help.

After about twelve minutes it became silent in the chambers. The Jewish personnel then opened the doors leading outside and pulled the bodies out of the chambers with long hooks. To do this they had to put these hooks in the mouths of the bodies. In front of the building they were once again thoroughly examined and the bodily orifices were searched for valuables. Gold teeth were ripped out and collected in tins. These activities were carried out by the Jewish camp personnel. The bodies were taken from the searching area directly [and thrown] into deep mass graves which were situated near the extermination institute. When the grave was fairly full, petrol — it may have been some other flammable liquid — was poured over the bodies and they were then set alight. I had barely established that the bodies were not completely burned when a layer of earth was thrown over them and then more bodies were put into the same grave. During the disposal of the bodies I also established that the whole procedure was not entirely satisfactory from the point of view of hygiene.
Statement of Pfannenstiel 25.4.60: 413 AR-Z 220/69, vol. iv, p. 583

This is a thread about Kola's study though, and I'm still waiting for them to humor me on the ash question, it's been three days now. viewtopic.php?p=1428#p1428
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fireofice
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by fireofice »

bombsaway wrote:One issue you guys have is deferring to secondary sources like historians on what the story is. This is not how history works. Whenever possible, the primary sources take precedent. At best you're making a critique of historiography, which is important, but that's barely relevant to the debate. Historians are often wrong, you're just showing that Holocaust history is no exception.
My main point in citing that was to try to indirectly get at what some more primary sources said. It's an imperfect substitute for looking at the sources themselves, which I don't have access to. I wasn't citing Arad's opinion, I was citing the sources he cited. So my question still stands, are there any other earlier sources on the mass cremation of bodies at Belzec starting in October?
Burning of bodies is evidenced in August of 1942. The extent of the burning is unclear, but it is evidenced.
Yeah I've seen this quote before. This is about partial burnings after bodies were already buried to fit in a few more bodies on top. This doesn't do much to help your side of things imo and it doesn't address my request for sources of mass cremations of Belzec starting in October.
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Archie
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by Archie »

fireofice wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:29 am
Nessie wrote:That is not my idea either.
From Arad's book:
The opening of the mass graves in Belzec and the cremating of the corpses removed from them began with the interruption of the arrival of transports and of the killing activities there in mid-December 1942. At that time there were about 600,000 corpses of murdered Jews in the pits of the camp. SS Scharführer Heinrich Gley, who served at that time in Belzec, testified:
From the beginning of August 1942 until the camp was closed in September 1943 I was in Belzec. . . . As I remember, the gassing stopped at the end of 1942, when snow was already falling. Then the unearthing and cremation of the corpses began. It lasted from November 1942 until March 1943. The cremation was conducted day and night, without interruption. At first, the burning took place at one site, and later, at two. One cremating site had the capacity to burn 2,000 corpses the beginning of the cremation operation, the second burning site was erected. On the average, during five months, at the first burning site about 300,000 corpses were cremated, and in four months at the second burning site, about 240,000 corpses. Naturally, these are average estimations. . . .
An official Polish committee investigating German crimes in the Lublin area wrote in its concluding report:
From December 1942 the arrival of transports with Jews to the Belzec camps came to a standstill. The Germans then started to erase systematically the trails of their crimes. They started to remove from the graves, with special cranes, the corpses of the murdered, pour over them some highly flammable material, and cremate them in large heaps. Later the procedure of burning the corpses was improved, and a roaster of railway tracks was built. The corpses were laid in layers, alternated with a layer of wood. The ashes from the burned corpses were put through a screening machine so that the valuables that might have remained with the corpses could be separated and removed. Subsequently, the ashes were buried. . . . The burning of the corpses was finished in March 1943. . . .
. . .

Rudolf Reder escaped from Belzec at the end of November 1942, shortly before the cremation began, and he could not give firsthand testimony about the cremation of the corpses there.
The USHMM seems to be the only source for the October date (which is what Wikipedia cited). All other earlier sources put it on November at the earliest. Do you have any other sources that say it was October? If not, it seems like this was just made up by the USHMM.
The USHMM link isn't sourced and is pretty vague. It refers to personnel being deployed in October but it gives no real detail about the burning or disinterring corpses. And there are more detailed descriptions in other sources saying something different (like the material I quoted).
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bombsaway
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by bombsaway »

fireofice wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:43 am
bombsaway wrote:One issue you guys have is deferring to secondary sources like historians on what the story is. This is not how history works. Whenever possible, the primary sources take precedent. At best you're making a critique of historiography, which is important, but that's barely relevant to the debate. Historians are often wrong, you're just showing that Holocaust history is no exception.
My main point in citing that was to try to indirectly get at what some more primary sources said. It's an imperfect substitute for looking at the sources themselves, which I don't have access to. I wasn't citing Arad's opinion, I was citing the sources he cited. So my question still stands, are there any other earlier sources on the mass cremation of bodies at Belzec starting in October?
Burning of bodies is evidenced in August of 1942. The extent of the burning is unclear, but it is evidenced.
Yeah I've seen this quote before. This is about partial burnings after bodies were already buried to fit in a few more bodies on top. This doesn't do much to help your side of things imo and it doesn't address my request for sources of mass cremations of Belzec starting in October.
As far as I know there are no sources that speak of systematic mass body destruction early on. What's relevant for this thread is that revisionists, in their calculations, assume no burnings took place, which is wrongheaded in my opinion, and shows the bias on your side. There's uncertainty here, so to disprove something you should be generous with your assumptions.

Kola found about 30 mass graves. Assuming a 2 hour long fire lit in each, a 30% volume reduction could be possible. Even if bodies aren't destroyed (much mass lost) one could still expect a volume reduction (due to bodies beginning to crumble), faster speed of decomposition, etc

You aren't taking these kinetics into account. You assume an arbitrary set of kinetics in order to make the case more favorable, which isn't too impressive, considering the lack of direct evidence for your narrative. This already makes your case very tough, so you have to be able to demolish orthodoxy on the physical evidence like this.

Not only do you assume arbitrary kinetics, you aren't capable of answering simple questions about what Kola found (see my repeated inquiries, viewtopic.php?p=1428#p1428)
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by Archie »

bombsaway wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:09 am
fireofice wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:29 am
The USHMM seems to be the only source for the October date (which is what Wikipedia cited). All other earlier sources put it on November at the earliest. Do you have any other sources that say it was October? If not, it seems like this was just made up by the USHMM.
One issue you guys have is deferring to secondary sources like historians on what the story is. This is not how history works. Whenever possible, the primary sources take precedent. At best you're making a critique of historiography, which is important, but that's barely relevant to the debate. Historians are often wrong, you're just showing that Holocaust history is no exception.

Burning of bodies is evidenced in August of 1942. The extent of the burning is unclear, but it is evidenced.


...
Arad and other historians, in theory, have already reviewed the primary sources and carefully weighed and synthesized them. I guess you are saying you think Arad did a bad job?? Interesting concession.

Generally speaking, the official story comes from the literature, i.e., secondary sources, not random primary sources which have countless inconsistencies. Reder says 3,000,000 bodies. That's a primary source. It's also not generally accepted. You seem to want to shop miscellaneous sources and pull out whatever bits you find convenient in the moment, ignoring how it would fit in with everything else. THAT'S not how history is done.
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bombsaway
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by bombsaway »

Archie wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 8:04 am
bombsaway wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:09 am
fireofice wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:29 am
The USHMM seems to be the only source for the October date (which is what Wikipedia cited). All other earlier sources put it on November at the earliest. Do you have any other sources that say it was October? If not, it seems like this was just made up by the USHMM.
One issue you guys have is deferring to secondary sources like historians on what the story is. This is not how history works. Whenever possible, the primary sources take precedent. At best you're making a critique of historiography, which is important, but that's barely relevant to the debate. Historians are often wrong, you're just showing that Holocaust history is no exception.

Burning of bodies is evidenced in August of 1942. The extent of the burning is unclear, but it is evidenced.


...
Arad and other historians, in theory, have already reviewed the primary sources and carefully weighed and synthesized them. I guess you are saying you think Arad did a bad job?? Interesting concession.

Generally speaking, the official story comes from the literature, i.e., secondary sources, not random primary sources which have countless inconsistencies. Reder says 3,000,000 bodies. That's a primary source. It's also not generally accepted. You seem to want to shop miscellaneous sources and pull out whatever bits you find convenient in the moment, ignoring how it would fit in with everything else. THAT'S not how history is done.
Reder's statements are contradicted by better sources, like the deportation records to Belzec (from which Arad got his 600k figure, and then later the Hofle telegram, which was the Nazis own numbers).

It's absolutely typical in history to defer to written records over individual testimonies (of compromised people no less). Reder was compromised due to the brutality he was subjected to, and also his lack of access to what was happening, he was a prisoner, and not directly involved in transporting corpses, etc. Historians would be utterly foolish to take his numbers as sacrosanct, esp when they are not corroborated elsewhere.

And still no response to my question about the ash layers. Did Nazgul do the best job here, should I examine his explanation?
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by Archie »

bombsaway wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 8:15 am
Archie wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 8:04 am
bombsaway wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:09 am

One issue you guys have is deferring to secondary sources like historians on what the story is. This is not how history works. Whenever possible, the primary sources take precedent. At best you're making a critique of historiography, which is important, but that's barely relevant to the debate. Historians are often wrong, you're just showing that Holocaust history is no exception.

Burning of bodies is evidenced in August of 1942. The extent of the burning is unclear, but it is evidenced.


...
Arad and other historians, in theory, have already reviewed the primary sources and carefully weighed and synthesized them. I guess you are saying you think Arad did a bad job?? Interesting concession.

Generally speaking, the official story comes from the literature, i.e., secondary sources, not random primary sources which have countless inconsistencies. Reder says 3,000,000 bodies. That's a primary source. It's also not generally accepted. You seem to want to shop miscellaneous sources and pull out whatever bits you find convenient in the moment, ignoring how it would fit in with everything else. THAT'S not how history is done.
Reder's statements are contradicted by better sources, like the deportation records to Belzec (from which Arad got his 600k figure, and then later the Hofle telegram, which was the Nazis own numbers).

It's absolutely typical in history to defer to written records over individual testimonies (of compromised people no less). Reder was compromised due to the brutality he was subjected to, and also his lack of access to what was happening, he was a prisoner, and not directly involved in transporting corpses, etc. Historians would be utterly foolish to take his numbers as sacrosanct, esp when they are not corroborated elsewhere.

And still no response to my question about the ash layers. Did Nazgul do the best job here, should I examine his explanation?
That process of weighing out the sources is what historians are supposed to do. And they publish their work in secondary sources.
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bombsaway
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by bombsaway »

Archie wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 8:18 am
bombsaway wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 8:15 am
Archie wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 8:04 am

Arad and other historians, in theory, have already reviewed the primary sources and carefully weighed and synthesized them. I guess you are saying you think Arad did a bad job?? Interesting concession.

Generally speaking, the official story comes from the literature, i.e., secondary sources, not random primary sources which have countless inconsistencies. Reder says 3,000,000 bodies. That's a primary source. It's also not generally accepted. You seem to want to shop miscellaneous sources and pull out whatever bits you find convenient in the moment, ignoring how it would fit in with everything else. THAT'S not how history is done.
Reder's statements are contradicted by better sources, like the deportation records to Belzec (from which Arad got his 600k figure, and then later the Hofle telegram, which was the Nazis own numbers).

It's absolutely typical in history to defer to written records over individual testimonies (of compromised people no less). Reder was compromised due to the brutality he was subjected to, and also his lack of access to what was happening, he was a prisoner, and not directly involved in transporting corpses, etc. Historians would be utterly foolish to take his numbers as sacrosanct, esp when they are not corroborated elsewhere.

And still no response to my question about the ash layers. Did Nazgul do the best job here, should I examine his explanation?
That process of weighing out the sources is what historians are supposed to do. And they publish their work in secondary sources.
You're talking to me, not some distant personage, maybe dead (like Arad). The history isn't so complex that I can't grasp it and tell you why trusting Reder on the number killed is wrongheaded from the perspective of someone doing proper history.
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Nessie
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by Nessie »

fireofice wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:29 am
Nessie wrote:That is not my idea either.
From Arad's book:
The opening of the mass graves in Belzec and the cremating of the corpses removed from them began with the interruption of the arrival of transports and of the killing activities there in mid-December 1942. At that time there were about 600,000 corpses of murdered Jews in the pits of the camp. SS Scharführer Heinrich Gley, who served at that time in Belzec, testified:
From the beginning of August 1942 until the camp was closed in September 1943 I was in Belzec. . . . As I remember, the gassing stopped at the end of 1942, when snow was already falling. Then the unearthing and cremation of the corpses began. It lasted from November 1942 until March 1943. The cremation was conducted day and night, without interruption. At first, the burning took place at one site, and later, at two. One cremating site had the capacity to burn 2,000 corpses the beginning of the cremation operation, the second burning site was erected. On the average, during five months, at the first burning site about 300,000 corpses were cremated, and in four months at the second burning site, about 240,000 corpses. Naturally, these are average estimations. . . .
An official Polish committee investigating German crimes in the Lublin area wrote in its concluding report:
From December 1942 the arrival of transports with Jews to the Belzec camps came to a standstill. The Germans then started to erase systematically the trails of their crimes. They started to remove from the graves, with special cranes, the corpses of the murdered, pour over them some highly flammable material, and cremate them in large heaps. Later the procedure of burning the corpses was improved, and a roaster of railway tracks was built. The corpses were laid in layers, alternated with a layer of wood. The ashes from the burned corpses were put through a screening machine so that the valuables that might have remained with the corpses could be separated and removed. Subsequently, the ashes were buried. . . . The burning of the corpses was finished in March 1943. . . .
. . .

Rudolf Reder escaped from Belzec at the end of November 1942, shortly before the cremation began, and he could not give firsthand testimony about the cremation of the corpses there.
The USHMM seems to be the only source for the October date (which is what Wikipedia cited). All other earlier sources put it on November at the earliest. Do you have any other sources that say it was October? If not, it seems like this was just made up by the USHMM.
You have quoted Arad, quoting a witness who said cremations started in November. USHMM states October, so the primary source, the witness, splits the difference between the secondary sources that say November and December.

The point is that such uncertainty means that revisionist calculations are guess work, so they cannot be considered reliable enough to state with any certainty that there is not enough disturbed ground at Belzec to have buried around 430,000 corpses and it was likely less than that.
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by fireofice »

Nessie wrote:The point is that such uncertainty means that revisionist calculations are guess work, so they cannot be considered reliable enough to state with any certainty that there is not enough disturbed ground at Belzec to have buried around 430,000 corpses and it was likely less than that.
Given an earliest date of November and using the number you gave us, we would just subtract the 89,070 you gave us from the grave of 441,000 and get 351,930. That can still fit according to you? OK :shock:
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Nessie
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by Nessie »

fireofice wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 9:36 am
Nessie wrote:The point is that such uncertainty means that revisionist calculations are guess work, so they cannot be considered reliable enough to state with any certainty that there is not enough disturbed ground at Belzec to have buried around 430,000 corpses and it was likely less than that.
Given an earliest date of November and using the number you gave us, we would just subtract the 89,070 you gave us from the grave of 441,000 and get 351,930. That can still fit according to you? OK :shock:
Yes. There is sufficient archaeological, witness, documentary and circumstantial evidence that many corpses were buried and/or cremated at Belzec. Unlike you, I do not go by my gut feeling, I go by what is evidenced, which is a far more reliable method for determining what happened.
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fireofice
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Re: The Kola Study - An Own Goal by Team Holocaust

Post by fireofice »

Looking back at Mattogno's Belzec book, I found this:
During pre-trial interrogation for the Bełżec trial, Heinrich Gley declaredon January 7, 1963:
As far as I can remember, the gassings were stopped toward the end of 1942, when we already had snow. Then the general exhumation and cremation started; it may have lasted from November 1942 through March 1943. The cremations went on day and night without interruption, first on one and then on two hearths. One hearth allowed some 2,000 corpses to be burned in 24 hours. The second hearth was erected about four weeks after the beginning of the cremation operation. Thus, on average, the one hearth burned a total of 300,000 corpses over a period of some 5 months, the other 240,000 over some 4 months. Of course, these are only general estimates. (emphasis added)
However, during his interrogation on May 8, 1961, he had said something entirely different:
The mass gassings of Jews in the Belcec [sic] camp were terminated at the end of 1942. To answer your question, I say that I am sure no corpses were as yet being cremated when I arrived. In the beginning of 1943 – I can no longer say whether it was in January, February, or March – I was ordered to gather, with a work detail, regular and narrow-gauge rails and large rocks. This material was to serve for the construction of large grids, upon which the corpses were burned that had been buried initially. I was not part of the cremation detail.
Thus, the cremations would not have started before January of 1943. In section 4.3. we shall examine the consequences ensuing from these declarations.
So if we go with his earliest statement, it started in January at the earliest. So all the bodies would indeed be in the grave.

On Rudolf Reder, Wikipedia backs up Arad's claim that he escaped at the end of November.
At the end of November 1942, during the prisoner transport to Lviv for camp supplies and sheet metal, he escaped under cover of darkness.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Reder

If he escaped at the end of November, then the mass cremations would most likely been in December at the earliest.

These 2 things in my opinion make a December-January excavation the most "plausible" in terms of witness testimony (not actual reality though).
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