Callafangers wrote: ↑Tue Jan 20, 2026 7:51 pm
The notion that history should be exempt from the falsification principle is, of course, absurd. Historical hypotheses generally can be falsified, e.g.: "All casualties from the Battle of Waterloo were buried in the cemetery at Y."
If later a grave is discovered that predates the battle, the hypothesis is falsified. What matters is whether the hypothesis makes
risk‑bearing predictions, i.e. is fully exposed to potential refutation. If not, it is invalidated, at least in practice.
This is a bad example, since you advanced a purported "historical hypothesis" while apparently ignorant of what happened to the dead from Napoleonic battlefields and in particular, the Battle of Waterloo. There don't seem to be good figures on the number of French dead, who were piled up and burned along with horse carcasses, while the British and Prussian dead were counted somewhat better, which should make logical sense as they retained possession of the battlefield whereas the French army retreated in disarray, so any French commanders could hardly count their dead.
The battlefield and associated graves were then plundered to scavenge the bones for use in industrial production (sugar factories being one example from this era).
With the battle of Waterloo, authors and historians had relied on textual sources (military reports etc) for really, several centuries, for their estimates of the casualties of the battle. Archaeologists eventually took an interest with the rise of combat and battlefield archaeology, and were flummoxed to find so few bones from either human or animal (equine) remains in the vicinity of the battlefield site.
This then led the researchers writing the article for the Journal of Belgian History to review historical, textual sources to figure out the context for scavenging of Napoleonic-era battlefields for bones to be exploited in 19th Century industrial factories. Other historical, textual sources cited on the web page about cleaning up Napoleonic battlefields note the burning of human corpses and animal carcasses at the very least as a sanitary measure, but with any surviving bones liable to be filched.
This means that archaeologists cannot 'falsify' the casualties or graves of the battle of Waterloo and have no veto power over textual sources. On the contrary, they had to turn to textual sources to solve the conundrum here.
Bernard Wilkin, Robin Schäfer & Tony Pollard, 'The Real Fate of the Waterloo Fallen: The exploitation of bones in 19th century Belgium', Journal of Belgian History (2023)
https://www.journalbelgianhistory.be/en ... n%20v2.pdf
see also
https://shannonselin.com/2016/07/napole ... d-cleanup/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of ... #Aftermath
The number of dead, and their disposal after the battle, are merely aspects of the battle of Waterloo. The latter cannot be 'falsified' in the same way that a small detail, smaller event or example in a series of events could in principle be. The lack of precise certainty or re-verifiability (because the bodies and their bones disappeared two centuries ago) doesn't make the estimates of death tolls from Waterloo 'falsifiable', either. There are countless battles and massacres in human history which have wider estimate intervals than Waterloo.
Unfortunately, you seem to be mis-applying the concept/principle of falsification. E.g. you can definitely test (and potentially falsify) the claim that the Vel d'Hiv round-up prompted three memorials in Paris, etc. We can ask/investigate who built the memorials, and if we ever stumble across evidence that something else (e.g. political motivations) prompted the memorials, then the claim that the round-up is what prompted these could be falsified. However, if the French government became a prison state and criminalized such investigations/inquiries, this might not be possible (hence, at least partly invalidating claims that the Vel d'Hiv round-up prompted the memorials). The difference between accepted truth (the roundup occurred and the memorials were built) and validity (ensuring proper inference to what actually prompted the memorials) is critical, here, but both are required for an argument/position to be sound.
The bolded part stretches falsificationism to causes, rather than
whether something happened. Popper was considering scientific theories and extended his argument to social science theories like Marxism to claim some could not predict things and thus were 'unfalsifiable'.
There hasn't been a lot of clarification as to how the doctrine of falsifiability applies to every past event and must be some kind of inherent feature of how we discuss past events. The usual emphasis is the opposite, on verifiability, seeking corroboration where possible, and accepting that a lot about the past may not leave many traces or indeed any at all, since the passage of time is an information-destroying process. Before censuses one might find names of individuals in various other records surviving to varying degrees, but hit the middle ages and the concept of fixed surnames hadn't stuck yet, as one example.
The existence of Vel d'Hiv memorials and the release of two feature films about the Vel d'Hiv roundup in 2010 can certainly be interpreted within patterns of other evidence for how France in the 21st Century takes an interest in the Holocaust and why it does so (what motivates it). That however won't necessarily rise to the level of a social scientific theory which can be tested and 'falsified'.
The release of La Rafle and Sarah's Key in 2010 constitute cultural-historical events in their own right, more specific to France, but still in the same world that saw the release of Iron Man 2, Taylor Swift's Speak Now album, and the release of Opus Eponymous by the Swedish band Ghost.
For sure, there are some films, albums, novels etc whose release dates might be unclear, and some that were hoaxed or invented or which have been rumoured to exist, but don't. Some cultural products can also be memory-holed or withdrawn, but the memory-holing tends to leave a trace if the product was prominent enough, and the urge to archive and document in the current era means even lost works are 'known' (as is also the case for many texts from the ancient world - we know they existed, someone referred to them, that's it).
This is clear with memorials, since a lot of statues have been pulled down in recent decades, the fact that there
were statues and memorials to communist thinkers and leaders in East Bloc states, or Confederate generals in the Deep South, is attested to through textual and visual sources - the erection or pulling down of the statue gets reported, the statue or memorial was photographed.
It is not meaningfully possible to 'falsify' many things that are discrete and human, which can be observed directly with one's own eyes. This includes the existence of the film Iron Man 2 as it's readily available on streaming platforms or for sale as a DVD/BluRay, as is also the case for La Rafle and Sarah's Key. Amazon screwing up one's order wouldn't 'falsify' the existence of the movie.
The existence of Nelson's Column in Trafalgar Square in London has been observed for 183 years, and the statue and square have been the backdrop to events and protests, like the 1990 poll tax riot, and thus features in the background as a recognisable landmark:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_tax_ ... d_Firm.jpg
Nelson's Column is a distinctive statue, its existence isn't on a par with the 'all swans are white' classic example of falsifiability. Only if one was seeking to generalise and claim e.g. 'all capital cities have statues dedicated to military or naval flag rank officers' would this apply (and can be easily falsified, black swan style, since not every country or state has marshals, generals or admirals to glorify).
The statue is one of many commemorations or cultural expressions tying in to the battle of Trafalgar in 1805, much as Waterloo Station was named after the battle of Waterloo. The significance of these battles can be argued about, the details as well, but one cannot 'falsify' major events such as these. That would require explaining the existence of
every single historical source from all sides.
The same is true of the Vel d'Hiv round-up in Paris in July 1942. This was widely reported at the time, in Switzerland, the US and elsewhere, leaving numerous reactions and reports (from diplomats, relief agencies, churches) and also directives and reports in the Vichy French records, plus the German occupation records and SS papers. There were diarists in Paris noting down what they observed, and eyewitnesses who evaded the round-up or who were caught and survived Drancy and subsequent deportation. Accounts appeared in the Swiss press within weeks. The transport lists and other documentation relating to the transports sent from Drancy to Auschwitz after the round-up 'stocked it up' fit with the overall progression of reporting. This includes the end of year figure for France in the Korherr report.
It may be theoretically true that every individual source ever brought forth on the Vel d'Hiv roundup and its aftermath in Drancy could be stress-tested and 'falsifiable', and this does work to eliminate later fiction (like the novel from 2006 on which the film Sarah's Key was based) from the pile. Other sources might contain understandable errors based on vantage point (e.g. non-Vichy, non-German observers not having access to the precise number arrested, or not being aware that the transports went to Auschwitz in 1942) or when the source was written down (memory errors and the usual vagaries of eyewitness testimony). But those don't add up to the possibility of arguing the entire event was a hoax or hallucinated by all observers.
Maybe you can clarify how one can 'falsify' all the sources to big events like this, the battle of Waterloo, etc. To whether the event as a whole happened - not whether the course of it or extent of it needs revising, because the latter is perfectly normal. I mean things like claiming Stalingrad was never bombed in the last ten days of August 1942, or that no Jews were deported from the Netherlands in 1942-44.
French 'revisionists' don't seem to have disputed the basic facts about deportations from France; the same is true for 'revisionists' in general about deportations, with the signal exception of Butz trying to reduce the scale of the Hungarian Action and making himself look very stupid as a result.
I'm not disputing that smaller events, details, or examples of a series cannot be 'falsified' in the sense of shown to have not happened. Impersonators, sensationalisers, con artists, hoaxers, propagandists and others are quite firmly part of the historical record.
False reports exist, they have to be shown to be false, however. There were false reports in 1944 that the former French prime minister Leon Blum had died in Majdanek. Those were exposed as false in 1945 when he was found alive after being interned in Buchenwald from 1943 then transferred to Dachau in 1945.
Leon Blum's brother Rene was deported from Drancy to Auschwitz in September 1942 and did not survive. He was 64 in 1942, so he was unlikely to be selected for work and his age and health as reported from Drancy made him a prime candidate for perishing. His older brother Leo was in his early 70s by 1943-45 but was treated as a privileged inmate, not dumped into Birkenau. There are conflicting stories from Auschwitz about how Rene died, some of which are hearsay, some might be, and there's the general risk of legend-building because of his 'fame by association'. Vrba noted in his report that Rene Blum "was atrociously tortured, then gassed and burned", but associates his arrival with numbers about 20,000 lower than the transport Rene Blum was actually on. Whether he was tortured then gassed or tortured to death instead of being gassed is unclear; other French survivors who heard things about him similarly note he was tortured, and singled out because of his famous relative (supposedly the SS asked for him on arrival). That could be 'fame by association' and embellishing the story of a well known personality - Rene Blum had some success directing ballet companies in the 1930s.
Nonetheless, Rene Blum did not emerge alive at the end of the war and was not among the 26 survivors of convoi 36 departing from Drancy on 23 September 1942. He was definitely seen in Drancy by direct witnesses, after being seen previously in Compiegne by direct witnesses; his name is on the transport list for the convoy noted; he doesn't seem to have shown up in the death books as a registered inmate or in other Auschwitz camp records.
The conclusion that Rene Blum died at Auschwitz shortly after his arrival is certainly falsifiable, if someone located evidence that he died elsewhere or was seen alive elsewhere, during the war. The conclusion that he did not survive the war would only be falsifiable if evidence came to light showing he lived after liberation, even if only briefly. His poor health as reported from Compiegne and Drancy by direct witnesses and advanced age at 64 make it very unlikely he survived the war.
If his health had grown even worse, he could easily have numbered among the 127 prisoners who died in Drancy before deportation, whose deaths were thoroughly documented in the French system. As a researcher has now shown, the bodies of inmates who died in Drancy were processed cursorily by the French authorities, with autopsies being deemed unnecessary on German orders, with UGIF-Nord arranging their regular burial for those with relatives (bear in mind far from all French citizens of Jewish origin were arrested, and some only very late on) and those whose bodies were unclaimed buried by the French state as indigents.
https://shs.cairn.info/article/E_VIN_143_0099?lang=en
The French state has through to the 21st Century declared non-returning deportees to be dead, with lists published in official gazettes (I forget the details but noticed the publications a few years back on worldcat.org). This is not necessarily any different to German courts after 1945 deciding that a missing soldier should be 'für tot erklärt'. Some of the soldiers might have been identified in later decades if their graves were found and dog tags survived. Many more still haven't been, and the same goes for civilians caught up in WWII.
Such declarations can be falsified if the missing person presumed dead resurfaces; this has been the subject of various dramas set after WWII since mix-ups with records also happened. But not on a mass scale. Some cases coming to light would no more falsify the overall picture with KZ and Auschwitz deportees than it would mean German soldiers hadn't been pulverised by Katyushas or otherwise killed because a few Vermisste resurfaced later in the 1950s (some of whom might have assumed false identities to evade prosecution as war criminals, some died under their new/false names).
The in-principle falsifiability of missing persons cases doesn't mean that missing status is automatically falsified just on someone's say-so or because they really, really want it to be true. There isn't an obligation to instruct 'revisionists' on genealogy research and how one might trace people through the WWII records, postwar tracing services (Arolsen archives etc), immigration records and so on. There probably isn't much point trying this route, but it is how one in-principle could falsify someone's missing person status. One could even try a comparison with other known groups of missing persons, like German soldiers who perished in 1944-45.
This might be as remote as the theoretical possibility that all the sources for the battle of Waterloo could be 'falsified'.