Convergance of evidence.
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 8:06 am
This is worthy of its own thread;
Archie wrote: ↑Sun Apr 06, 2025 8:19 pmNessie does a poor man's version of Shermer's "convergence of evidence" argument.HansHill wrote: ↑Sun Apr 06, 2025 3:43 pmFor all newcomers: If it weren't obvious enough, but when our good friend Nessie says things like the above, what he means are things like:
- "Evidence from eyewitnesses" = wild claims which often contradict each other and are not supported by the physical evidence
- "documentary" = Inventory sheets from Krema II saying "mesh device" as the murder weapon
- "physical" = Lidar findings of human remains and craters at known transit camps like Treblinka
- "circumstantial" = nobody claimed there wasnt gassings, therefore there were
Nessie also conveniently begins from the position that gassings did occur, and the """""""evidence""""""" listed above is self-evident and therefore anything contradicting this is a logical fallacy.
Welcome to Codoh, you're going to see alot of this!
Here is a good critique of Shermer by Crowell.
https://ihr.org/journal/v20n1p45_Shermer.htmlBy “convergence of evidence” Shermer means a situation in which data from a variety of different fields all point to a specific factual conclusion. Shermer argues that there are eighteen kinds of data that converge on the fact of the Holocaust: five testimonies, four Nazi speeches, blueprints of the crematoria, photos of dead inmates, more testimonies, Zyklon B orders, Eichmann’s confession, postwar statements of the German government, and many missing Jews (p. 118). No, the list does not add up to eighteen, and no, we are not making fun of Shermer’s argument: this is exactly what he says, except that by the end of his litany the eighteen kinds of data have become eighteen proofs “all converging on one conclusion.”
There are at least three things wrong with Shermer’s argument. The first problem is that if we accept the word “Holocaust” as a rubric to describe everything that happened to Jewish people in the Second World War we immediately run into a problem of relating the disparate parts to each other. For example, it is well known that thousands of dead persons were photographed by the Americans and the British in such camps as Bergen Belsen, Buchenwald, and Dachau: these photographs prove that there were many dead, Jews and others, in these camps when they were captured, nothing more. Sophisticated exponents of the Holocaust are in agreement with revisionists that such evidence has no bearing on what did or did not happen in alleged “extermination” camps such as Auschwitz or Treblinka.
The second problem is that the evidence does not necessarily converge on the stated conclusions. For example, when discussing the mass gassing claim, Shermer argues that we know mass gassings took place because of (1) testimonies, (2) blueprints of crematoria, (3) Zyklon B traces, (4) photographs, ground level and (5) aerial, and (6) existing ruins. But these categories of evidence provide distinctly different levels of evidentiary value. The testimonies, as is well known, are frequently implausible, were generated at a time when gassing stories had been widely disseminated, and were given before courts committed to upholding the gassing claim. The blueprints, on the other hand, only show that crematoria were planned. The existence of Zyklon B traces, in camps where the product was widely used for disinfection, is automatically moot. The ground level photos show piles of dead bodies. The aerial photos prove that crematoria were built. The ruins provide evidence that delousing stations, as well as crematoria, were built. None of the non-testimonial classes of evidence would necessarily lead to a conclusion that mass gassings took place, while the testimony itself remains unreliable.
Shermer’s “convergence of evidence” argument appears to be rather that, if various classes of evidence do not contradict the central assertion, these other classes of evidence corroborate, or converge, on that central conclusion. In the same way, an old woman in the seventeenth century could have been shown to have gamboled in a midnight glade with Satan — and then been burned at the stake, so long as a broom and a cat were produced.
The third problem with Shermer’s “convergence” model is that by returning again and again to rather weak categories of evidence — such as eyewitness stories, aerial photos, cans of Zyklon, the use of the word “Ausrottung” (extirpation) in public speeches — he passes over the enormous gap in the documentary record. It is precisely this documentary gap — the absence of any reliable documentation at any level that points to homicidal gassing, and the absence of documentation to indicate that the Third Reich was pursuing a policy of exterminating all Jews — that leads people to the revisionist perspective.
And here is another by Lyle Burkhead.
https://historiography-project.com/misc ... gether.phpTwo pieces of false or irrelevant evidence do not “corroborate” each other. It doesn’t matter if they are two pieces of the same type, or different types. There could be a million witnesses and a million photographs: if each piece of evidence is false or irrelevant, then the whole mass of them is no better than any individual piece. This applies equally to ESP, UFOs, and gas chambers.
This is the heart of the matter.
Michael Shermer presents eyewitness reports, each of which is questionable. This is the only evidence for the gas chambers. To “corroborate” this testimony, Dr. Shermer presents many other pieces of evidence which prove conclusively that Hitler and the other Nazis hated the Jews enough to kill them, that concentration camps existed, and that many Jews died in the camps and were cremated. But none of this evidence corroborates what the witnesses said about the gas chambers. Dr. Shermer gives us photographs which do not show gas chambers, documents which do not mention gas chambers, reports of brutal treatment of prisoners, and so forth: the “18 bits of evidence.” This whole mass of evidence taken together is supposed to prove that there were gas chambers. No, it doesn’t.
According to Dr. Shermer, this is how “convergence” works: First you construct a picture of the whole thing, the Holocaust — the menacing speeches, the trains, the unloading platforms, the gas chambers, the ovens, the burning pits, the mass graves, the starving prisoners in the camps at the end of the war. Then you say that any evidence for any part of this picture is a “proof” of the whole thing; and if you have 18 “proofs,” they “converge” to the conclusion that the whole picture is true, even if you don’t have a proof of every part.