Why does SanityCheck evade the Physical Evidence Question?

[Nazgul]

Dr. Terry,

Thank you for your detailed overview of the Treblinka transports. I would like to highlight several points from the Fahrplananordnung (FPLO) documents and related research:

Scheduled Stops En Route: Many trains made planned stops at Jewish labor camps or railway junctions, typically lasting around an hour. These stops involved unloading or temporary placement of deportees before the final arrival at Treblinka.

Deaths During Transit: While some deportees undoubtedly died en route, the FPLO records do not specify the ethnicity or precise cause of death. Consequently, assuming that all DOA cases were Jewish or that all deaths occurred only upon arrival at Treblinka is not supported by the documentation.

Local Burials: Investigations indicate a large number of Jewish cemeteries along transport routes. These suggest that some deportees who died in transit were buried locally, further challenging the idea that the majority of deaths occurred at the Treblinka upper camp.

Taken together, the FPLO documents and burial evidence demonstrate that transport logistics were more structured than a purely chaotic DOA scenario suggests. This does not deny deaths occurred, but it does indicate that arrivals at Treblinka were not uniformly “mostly dead on arrival,” and some deportees were alive during intermediate stops.

If useful, I can provide the FPLO references for review, which give clear documentation of stops, timing, and handling procedures along these transport routes.

Here is a link with the information FPLO 587

[Stubble]

Again you are moving the mass graves out of the bounds of the extermination area of Treblinka, you can't do that. Your communist propagandist turned Treblinka survivor and your Warsaw circus writers group constrain the mass graves to where they are not. Furthermore, my study of the satellite LIDAR of the area does not indicate mass graves in the fields. I don't see a vegetation change on satellite photos either. Disturbances are not indicated. Results are null.

They still aren't 'murdered at Treblinka'. Something else happened.

[Nazgul]

They still aren't 'murdered at Treblinka'. Something else happened.

This is because if you read my post above most never arrived. At Treblinka there were an arbeitslager and two judenlagers. The transports stopped at locations of Jewish Labour camps or railways junctions for about an hour according to train schedule documents.

[Stubble]

I should have quote posted Dr Terry. I was referring to his synopsis of why the mass graves don't comport with the number. Regardless, the population of Seattle wasn't murdered at Treblinka II, dug up, cremated and then shot into the stratosphere.

I guess the same still applies to you as well Mr Wraith, however, your claim here is very far from the orthodox claim. You see, for 80 years everyone has been led to believe that on the order of 800,000 people were buried, dug up and cremated at Treblinka II. This is the orthodox narrative. It is also demonstrably false. Hence now the wriggling and worming the bodies into simply being 'some place else'.

The irony here is of course rich. You see, I'm told this isn't how history is done as I literally watch the sausage being made. The outcome is predetermined, evidence be damned. I saw the start of these steps Nick is strolling down over in the Sobibor thread. There he cited the Hoffle telegram as proof we knew people went to Sobibor. Now, well, we don't know from Hoffle, because, escapes happened and so people were shot on the way you see. Then there are all the other Holocaust History canards. I'm surprised he didn't say that the '80%' who 'arrived dead from asphyxiation' were murdered with chlorinated lime thrown in the floor of the train car. That, is the claim, isn't it Nick? That they asphyxiated on chlorine gas generated from chlorinated lime on the floor?

I will say Mr Wraith, I'm surprised to see your version of the events as well. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely believe 14f14 was employed at these camps, which isn't so different. I can even see some 14f13. Where you lose me is millions of dead jews. You and I have been over the population miracle, we have been over the population revisions post war. We have talked about the efforts by the German Authorities to preserve lives. Now, well, you are talking about piles of dead jews littering the train tracks and covering the front porch at Treblinka. Color me surprised.

[Nazgul]

I will say Mr Wraith, I'm surprised to see your version of the events as well. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely believe 14f14 was employed at these camps, which isn't so different. I can even see some 14f13. Where you lose me is millions of dead jews. You and I have been over the population miracle, we have been over the population revisions post war. We have talked about the efforts by the German Authorities to preserve lives. Now, well, you are talking about piles of dead jews littering the train tracks and covering the front porch at Treblinka. Color me surprised.

On statistical range, margin of error, and the interpretive limits of specific numerical claims in WWII mortality

Estimates of total mortality during the Second World War are not precise counts but reconstructed ranges derived from incomplete and heterogeneous demographic data. Most mainstream reconstructions place total war-related deaths between approximately 69 and 84 million, combining an estimated 50–56 million direct military and civilian deaths with an additional 19–28 million deaths attributable to war-related famine and disease. The resulting spread of roughly 15 million deaths reflects structural uncertainty in the source data rather than disagreement over a known total.

Taking the midpoint of this range (≈ 76.5 million) yields an implied absolute uncertainty of approximately ±7.5 million, corresponding to a relative uncertainty of nearly 20%. This level of uncertainty establishes a clear methodological limit on numerical precision.

Within this context, the citation of a specific figure such as 6 million deaths attributed to any single group has limited analytical meaning at the level of aggregate wartime statistics. This is not a statement about the reality or gravity of those deaths, but about statistical resolution. A figure of that magnitude falls within the global margin of error of total WWII mortality estimates. When the uncertainty of the measurement system exceeds the scale of the sub-value being highlighted, the system cannot independently resolve that sub-value with high numerical confidence unless supported by separate, high-resolution evidence.

Methodologically, total wartime mortality is the sum of multiple components—military losses, civilian deaths, famine, disease, and regional population deficits—each carrying its own uncertainty. When combined, these uncertainties propagate rather than cancel out. As a result, precision at the sub-category level cannot exceed the precision of the aggregate total. Presenting fixed figures without explicit confidence intervals therefore risks overstating what the underlying data can actually support.

This limitation is reinforced by logistical factors. Demographic reconstructions often rely on simplifying assumptions about transport continuity and timing. Archival transport records showing extended stops at railway junctions or labour camps introduce additional variance into time-to-outcome distributions, widening uncertainty rather than narrowing it. Such complexity further weakens claims of fine numerical precision.

In summary, WWII mortality figures should be understood as broad ranges with substantial uncertainty, not exact counts. Within such ranges, the repetition of a specific figure—such as 6 million deaths attributed to any particular group—has limited explanatory power in statistical terms unless accompanied by independent evidence capable of resolving it beyond the existing margin of error. This is a methodological observation about the limits of large-scale historical reconstruction, not a judgment on the human significance of loss. I have added the calculations as a pdf file for those interested.

statistic and death.pdf

(120.21 KiB) Downloaded 3 times

[SanityCheck]

Dr. Terry,

Thank you for your detailed overview of the Treblinka transports. I would like to highlight several points from the Fahrplananordnung (FPLO) documents and related research:

Scheduled Stops En Route: Many trains made planned stops at Jewish labor camps or railway junctions, typically lasting around an hour. These stops involved unloading or temporary placement of deportees before the final arrival at Treblinka.

Deaths During Transit: While some deportees undoubtedly died en route, the FPLO records do not specify the ethnicity or precise cause of death. Consequently, assuming that all DOA cases were Jewish or that all deaths occurred only upon arrival at Treblinka is not supported by the documentation.

Local Burials: Investigations indicate a large number of Jewish cemeteries along transport routes. These suggest that some deportees who died in transit were buried locally, further challenging the idea that the majority of deaths occurred at the Treblinka upper camp.

Taken together, the FPLO documents and burial evidence demonstrate that transport logistics were more structured than a purely chaotic DOA scenario suggests. This does not deny deaths occurred, but it does indicate that arrivals at Treblinka were not uniformly “mostly dead on arrival,” and some deportees were alive during intermediate stops.

If useful, I can provide the FPLO references for review, which give clear documentation of stops, timing, and handling procedures along these transport routes.

Here is a link with the information FPLO 587

Your use of AI is a little obvious here.

The Fahrplananordnungen concern transports of Jews only, they also aren't a full set corresponding to all transports. There is no corroborating evidence of anyone being unloaded at labour camps en route.

Conditions in the transports varied within the cars - if a mega-transport had 50-60 wagons, with heavy overcrowding reported, then only some wagons would see breakouts, others might be too crowded or too weak compositionally to succeed, even if some individuals might have wanted to. We have the evidence of the survivors on their experiences in their own wagons, while they then observe along with others en route what happened to other transports.

German SS witnesses like Suchomel concur that there was a high proportion who had died en route with some transports, as did the Polish underground for Treblinka.


Transports were frequently formed at a railhead from concentrating Jews out of several ghettos in a county, especially if there was a lack of stations in the county. If a ghetto/community was too far from the rail lines, the Germans might simply shoot the Jews on the spot, as they also did in periods of transport hiatus or overload (Lomazy, Jozefow, Mszana Dolna). If there were several stations in a county the transport could be progressively loaded at several stops, as happened with the Kolomea-Belzec transport.

There is evidence of some cars in transports being unloaded and diverted to Treblinka I labour camp; this is what Israel Cymlich describes in his contemporary manuscript. Clearly this happened fairly rarely since Treblinka I did not expand to a huge size, and was not a major solution for the overload in August 1942.


The spatial arrangement of Treblinka II and simple spatial logic call into question some of the copes seen from some revisionists. The description of the camp with its division into a lower camp with reception area, a funnel to the gas chambers, and then an upper camp, maps onto the air photos and onto archaeological work conducted using the air photos as a guide, thus the work by Caroline Sturdy Colls and also Polish archaeologists on the old and new gas chamber areas.

Sturdy Colls and others note there are mass grave areas in the outer/lower camp, which corresponds with the witness descriptions. The grave areas in the Treblinka upper camp would not make sense as a burial site for mere deaths in transit, given the size of the camp and the described division. Nor would the old and new gas chamber areas make sense as delousing chambers or a hygienic 'lock' (dirty/clean side) when there was no obvious path back to a way out, a departure zone; the entire location and layout of the camp argues against that as well (as it does with Sobibor and Belzec).

[SanityCheck]

The irony here is of course rich. You see, I'm told this isn't how history is done as I literally watch the sausage being made. The outcome is predetermined, evidence be damned. I saw the start of these steps Nick is strolling down over in the Sobibor thread. There he cited the Hoffle telegram as proof we knew people went to Sobibor. Now, well, we don't know from Hoffle, because, escapes happened and so people were shot on the way you see. Then there are all the other Holocaust History canards. I'm surprised he didn't say that the '80%' who 'arrived dead from asphyxiation' were murdered with chlorinated lime thrown in the floor of the train car. That, is the claim, isn't it Nick? That they asphyxiated on chlorine gas generated from chlorinated lime on the floor?

The Germans used chlorinated lime to clean the wagons, and this no doubt contributed to deaths in overcrowded cars the next time around. It's easy to see how that could be interpreted by the victims as maliciously deliberate rather than callously indifferent.

All of this has been in the source material and thus much public material as well from the get-go. Arad had a chapter on the transports in Belzec Sobibor Treblinka back in 1987. He also noted the breakdown and burial of DOAs or those killed on arrival by shooting in the same book.

This stuff isn't exactly new - but with more evidence of particular patterns, we can refine what was known, and also call into question assumptions. That doesn't change the outcome of death en route to or at Treblinka, but not all died in the gas chambers. You want to say otherwise, point to evidence.

The comparison with Auschwitz is instructive; there were some escapes from the trains from western Europe, and there's a document complaining about corpses found on the rail line in Silesia from Jewish transports. The scale was far less than is reported for Treblinka or Belzec. The transports were smaller, usually 1000-2000 deportees rather than 5000-8000 as was not uncommon for Treblinka or Belzec, and less overcrowded in each car. On arrival, selections were not accompanied by massive use of firearms but the threat of force alone (sentry cordon). So we can be fairly certain that if someone arrived as a four year old on a transport from Drancy that they were gassed. The probability that the particular, named, documented four year old died en route is very low.

[Nazgul]

There is no corroborating evidence of anyone being unloaded at labour camps en route.

Just because there’s no surviving documentation doesn’t mean people weren’t unloaded. Records from many intermediate camps are incomplete or lost. We know from places like Skaz Kammiena that thousands of people were regularly taken off trains for labor or processing, so it’s reasonable to conclude that similar disembarkations occurred at other stops. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

[Stubble]

The irony here is of course rich. You see, I'm told this isn't how history is done as I literally watch the sausage being made. The outcome is predetermined, evidence be damned. I saw the start of these steps Nick is strolling down over in the Sobibor thread. There he cited the Hoffle telegram as proof we knew people went to Sobibor. Now, well, we don't know from Hoffle, because, escapes happened and so people were shot on the way you see. Then there are all the other Holocaust History canards. I'm surprised he didn't say that the '80%' who 'arrived dead from asphyxiation' were murdered with chlorinated lime thrown in the floor of the train car. That, is the claim, isn't it Nick? That they asphyxiated on chlorine gas generated from chlorinated lime on the floor?

The Germans used chlorinated lime to clean the wagons, and this no doubt contributed to deaths in overcrowded cars the next time around. It's easy to see how that could be interpreted by the victims as maliciously deliberate rather than callously indifferent.

All of this has been in the source material and thus much public material as well from the get-go. Arad had a chapter on the transports in Belzec Sobibor Treblinka back in 1987. He also noted the breakdown and burial of DOAs or those killed on arrival by shooting in the same book.

This stuff isn't exactly new - but with more evidence of particular patterns, we can refine what was known, and also call into question assumptions. That doesn't change the outcome of death en route to or at Treblinka, but not all died in the gas chambers. You want to say otherwise, point to evidence.

The comparison with Auschwitz is instructive; there were some escapes from the trains from western Europe, and there's a document complaining about corpses found on the rail line in Silesia from Jewish transports. The scale was far less than is reported for Treblinka or Belzec. The transports were smaller, usually 1000-2000 deportees rather than 5000-8000 as was not uncommon for Treblinka or Belzec, and less overcrowded in each car. On arrival, selections were not accompanied by massive use of firearms but the threat of force alone (sentry cordon). So we can be fairly certain that if someone arrived as a four year old on a transport from Drancy that they were gassed. The probability that the particular, named, documented four year old died en route is very low.

If your source is still the newspaper Pravda. Take it with a grain of salt...

There are of course other places atrocity tales are told, but, the 'chlorinated lime death trains' canard has its origin in pravda.

With regard to 'saying otherwise', I'm working on it. It is going to have to be robust, or you are going to pick at it with 'well, you see, we know there are mass graves, in places', never mind that those places might as well be on the moon.

You demand footprints or a statistical cohort of dubious provenance was definitely murdered along the Bug, grave space be damned, because, you don't know how it was possible and that doesn't matter, because 'it' definitely happened in totality and every detail....

No HCN? No problem, just say Germar is refuted regardless of if that's true.

No bodies? No problem, move the eggs out of the basket and make it a never ending game of whack a mole. Sorry folks we were all wrong for 80 years, they didn't die where the witnesses said right over here, no no, they are just nebulous graves all over. No I can't show you, those dastardly nazis ,uh, well they had a registry for mass graves, but uh, you can't see it, and these graves were off the books any way, trust me bro.

I could keep going but these two solutions from you don't fill me with faith that you are being critical with history here.

[Callafangers]

And this is where you go off the rails.
First we establish the scale of deportations from known departure points; cities, towns, shtetls and railheads. The catch is that the numbers available are not 100% precise, and include estimates which likely drift upwards. The Hoefle telegram figure of 713,555 to 'T' could be interpreted in various ways, so there is already uncertainty.

Then we consider the conditions of the transports, the breakout attempts en route. [...]

We don't know the exact number and may not be able to know; it was decidedly less than whatever figure seems most probable for the number deported there. [...] Geography not your strong suit?

Dr. Terry, your latest response concedes the exterminationist narrative's core physical predictions -- mega-graves and fuel needs for ~800k gassed/buried in Treblinka's upper camp -- are untenable, now pivoting to diffuse 20-80% deaths en route (breakouts/DOAs buried in outer camp or along rails). This appears to be a novel theory (your very own), yet still demands verifiable traces at precise sites, and Kola/Mazurek/Sturdy-Colls digs yield only sparse economic debris nowhere near city-slaughter scale. Hoefle/"departure points" do not necessarily reflect actual T-II arrivals (let alone gassing deaths without a crime scene or murder weapon); thus, these are much better fitting revisionist transit/resettlement than dead-end extermination. Geography points to labor hub (branch line on Eastern side of GG 'Arbeitsbereich'), covert economic operations, typhus control and other sanitation measures (e.g. cremation), etc.; not an isolated kill-site. Your "we don't know exact number" admits to unfalsifiable vagueness while dodging the digs' resounding null results.

These "refinements" (Arad/US Holocaust Encyclopedia) multiply unproven graves without a shred of physical evidence (no quantified mass pits along Malkinia-Treblinka), recycling 80-year-old Pravda chlorinated-lime "asphyxiation" tales. This is logically absurd: why urgently remove/bury en route DOAs from trains heading straight to "cremation camps"? This bolsters revisionism (ghetto/train deaths routinely disposed at AR sites), not gassings -- and still zero physical corroboration for your claimed industrial scale.

The Germans practiced mass cremation at a far greater number of sites than just the death camps. For the prewar borders of Poland an incomplete list would include: [~34 sites]

Impressive roster, but classic red herring -- none approach AR camps' alleged biblical scale (e.g., Treblinka's 280M kg wood as the largest burning operation ever, totally unevidenced). Smaller sites like Plaszow or Poniatowa had docs/witnesses for modest pyres, not mega-operations. Your "significantly easier to organise" is pure hand-waving; quantify the wood/process for even your reduced Treblinka toll (350kg/corpse still dwarfs everything) -- where's the supply chain or relentless Polish testimony to acrid smoke/mushroom clouds blanketing homes for months?

Still evading direct rebuttals (unchallenged since OP):

- FeCN/Prussian Blue at Birkenau: Rudolf's comprehensive modeling (exposure/kinetics/stability) stands unrefuted; your generic "ventilation/washing/excreta" fails against delousing chamber parallels, especially unweathered ceiling samples.
- Birkenau Crematoria Capacity/Maintenance: No refractory brick maintenance records or air-photo pyre activity matching 1.1M toll; T4 parallels irrelevant to scale.
- Overlapping Cremations Math: Max ~10-15% time savings (lean corpses yield ~40k kcal available, 54% furnace efficiency → 30-40k usable vs. 200-330k demand/corpse); multi-corpse airflow/draft/timing losses negate more.
- Sobibor Graves: Kola's initial "dense" Graves 1/2/7 directly contradicted by Mazurek excavations (empty or mostly empty); objective totals ~2.7k-17k max.
- AR Fuel/Wood Scale: Treblinka's 280M kg unaddressed; "local Waldkommando" fantasy vs. zero records/witnesses to endless foul smoke.
- Falsifiability/Scientific Legitimacy: Monuments legally block decisive excavation (Lukasciewicz/Sturdy-Colls reveal economic ops, not mass graves); your "historical convergence" excuses inherently non-risky claims.

Your networks merely bloat the required conspiracy without resolving AR physical impossibilities -- address these specifics directly, or concede the physical evidence debate lost.

[Stubble]

Can we just take a moment to reflect and to appreciate how many yards this thread moved the ball?

Seriously, how many yards is Radom from Treblinka II, my geography is bad, I need some help here. I don't know if you know this or not, but, I once confused a Soviet gulag in chelmno with the nazi murder site chelmno, you know, because I suck at geography.

[HansHill]

The other is the Leuchter-Rudolf tests of the crematoria for cyanide traces. Both found such traces, but not in the form of iron cyanides. The 'coup' as it was hailed back in the 1980s/1990s wasn't found convincing. Leuchter and Rudolf were judged to have failed to have proven this would be a genuinely falsifying test, i.e. that the conditions in homicidal gassings would have necessarily led to the formation of iron cyanide, and that we should expect non-iron cyanides to have persisted in ruins exposed to the elements for 40+ years or which were used only sporadically. (Rudolf only sampled Krema II of the five crematoria, so his actual results were remarkably limited, btw.)

Note how their results were explained with auxiliary hypotheses which sought to reconstruct the circumstances of homicidal gassings (with ventilation in the significant cases) compared with prolonged delousing fumigation gassings, and thus the test failed.

Can you explain the part highlighted in bold please? Or is this mistaken?

[HansHill]

“Chemistry is not the science” was originally a phrase written by Rudolf. It speaks to the falsifiability of his position, just like any good scientifically sound theory. Rudolf in essence is holding out that there may be some chemical explanation for the lack of PB formation, thus rendering chemistry as an incomplete tool to “disprove” the Holocaust. We are just waiting to hear it.

Green somewhat opportunistically imo pounced on the phrase and used it as a title for his rebuttal paper (of the same name obviously). Imo this is in contrast to the spirit in which Rudolf offers it, and appears to be Twitter style slam dunk, you’re pwned bro!

[bombsaway]

“Chemistry is not the science” was originally a phrase written by Rudolf. It speaks to the falsifiability of his position, just like any good scientifically sound theory. Rudolf in essence is holding out that there may be some chemical explanation for the lack of PB formation, thus rendering chemistry as an incomplete tool to “disprove” the Holocaust. We are just waiting to hear it.

Green somewhat opportunistically imo pounced on the phrase and used it as a title for his rebuttal paper (of the same name obviously). Imo this is in contrast to the spirit in which Rudolf offers it, and appears to be Twitter style slam dunk, you’re pwned bro!

Is any science capable of rigorously disproving the Holocaust, or Is any science capable of rigorously disproving anything at all? Since all good science is falsifiable this should be the case then.

Actually after hearing Green's objections Rudolf made a full retreat from his previous "rigorous" claims, which Green shows in his article

[HansHill]

I actually agree BA to some extent. Good science is by definition falsifiable, we are all mature enough and capable enough to understand this. Flat earthers have a field day with this, when they prattle on about the “theory” of gravity being just a theory lol.

The point I will make here is, while the mature position must always be that science by necessity cannot be “rigorous” in the sense you seem to demand, it is eminently more “rigorous” than ridiculous claims about exotic murder weapons and fantastical throughput.

Science can at least stand on merit in this case, which is more than can be said about these ridiculous claims.